With the appointment of a new caretaker Prime Minister in Pakistan, several significant developments lie ahead for the country’s future. These changes come after the dissolution of the lower house of parliament by President Arif Alvi, paving the way for a general election under a neutral caretaker administration. However, amid constitutional, political, and economic crises, uncertainty looms over the path forward.
The newly appointed caretaker Prime Minister is Senator Anwar ul-Haq Kakar of the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP). This relatively unknown figure from Pakistan’s least-populous province will lead an interim government until the upcoming election. His responsibilities include selecting a cabinet to oversee crucial ministries during this transitional period.
Despite the requirement to hold elections within 90 days, the electoral timeline faces potential delays. The outgoing government’s approval of a new census necessitates the drawing of new electoral boundaries by the Election Commission. This intricate process, involving hundreds of federal and provincial constituencies in a densely populated country, could take six months or more. The Election Commission’s timeline for this exercise will determine the election date, potentially leading to further uncertainty.
Pakistan’s military continues to exert considerable influence behind the scenes. While the caretaker government’s constitutional tenure is fixed, an extended period without an elected government could potentially allow the military to consolidate its control over the nation’s political landscape.
The main contenders for leading the next government include Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) led by Shehbaz Sharif, and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chaired by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. However, Imran Khan’s imprisonment and ineligibility to contest elections present challenges for the PTI. The party aims to leverage sympathy and support to replicate its 2018 election success. The PML-N, under Shehbaz Sharif, is poised for a potential return to power despite Nawaz Sharif’s corruption conviction. Meanwhile, the young PPP leader, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, is considered a significant candidate due to his international exposure and potential as a future premier.
Leading up to the elections, Pakistan faces significant hurdles. The economy, valued at $350 billion, is in a fragile recovery phase following an International Monetary Fund bailout that prevented a sovereign debt default. Economic reforms have triggered historic inflation and interest rates, posing challenges to stabilization.
Political stability remains a concern, especially after Imran Khan’s imprisonment and the resulting questions surrounding the election’s credibility. Delays beyond the mandated 90 days may lead to constitutional and legal issues, potentially involving the intervention of the active Supreme Court.
Imran Khan’s role in the general elections is limited due to his party members’ resignation from parliament and his current imprisonment on corruption charges. While he is barred from contesting elections for the next five years, his absence may influence the dynamics of the upcoming election.
In conclusion, Pakistan stands at a crossroads with the appointment of a new caretaker Prime Minister. The nation’s future hinges on how the interim government navigates these challenges, the eventual election outcomes, and the subsequent course of governance. As the country grapples with political, economic, and constitutional complexities, the coming months will play a crucial role in shaping Pakistan’s trajectory.
